With so many moving pieces—jobs, inflation, earnings, growth—it’s easy to get caught up in the noise. But one chart that may deserve a third glance is global container freight rates. It’s not the loudest data point, but it could be hinting at meaningful shifts beneath the surface. Take a look:

World Container Index (WCI) Series

Global Container Freight Rates 

May 4, 2024 to May 4, 2025, Daily

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., As of May 4, 2025

Since late summer 2024, several freight rates have been steadily declining, with many hitting new lows in recent days. This includes key routes such as Shanghai to Los Angeles and Rotterdam, pointing to a fresh supply/demand imbalance in global freight activity. 

So What?

While that might not grab headlines the way a jobs report or earnings beat does, 

we believe it's a strong indicator that global shipping activity could be slowing—offering a real-time glimpse into cooling demand.

A decline in shipping costs matters because we’re in an environment full of crosscurrents. Labor data remains solid. Inflation looks contained for now. And Q1 earnings—especially from the tech giants—have been a bright spot. That’s helped risk assets climb, with the S&P 500 recently logging its longest winning streak in more than two decades. But cracks in the growth picture could be starting to show.

Trade Tensions on the Rise—But Much of the Data Hasn’t Caught Up

This week’s newly announced 100% tariff on overseas-made films added another layer of policy uncertainty. While narrow in scope, it reflects a broader rise in trade-related tensions—something that likely won’t show up in earnings or inflation data for another few months. That delay may explain why investors remain focused on the good news for now, while quietly sidelining the potential headwinds.

What This Could Mean for Clients 

For client portfolios, this is a time to stay engaged but vigilant. The rally may continue on momentum, but macro headwinds—particularly around trade and policy clarity—could resurface quickly. In short, we think that tactical flexibility, quality asset exposure, and diversified global allocations remain essential as we move into a noisy, data-dependent summer.

"The traditional positive correlation between the dollar and rates has broken down, indicating a significant shift in the currency market." 

- Timothy Reilly, President

Hilton’s celebrated Tactical Income strategy has been a cornerstone of the firm for over 20 years. This strategy targets competitive total returns through a portfolio of income-generating securities, while aiming to significantly reduce risk. Its tactical approach adjusts with the economic cycle, drawing on dynamic insights to adapt to changing market conditions. To learn more, watch the full video below.

Following the Trump administration's recent "Liberation Day" tariff announcement, U.S. stocks and bonds faced selling pressure. According to Reuters, the real story is only just beginning. The article notes even modest shifts by global investors could significantly impact U.S. asset prices, given massive overseas holdings. Some funds are already reducing U.S. exposure due to policy uncertainty and higher risk premiums. Fund manager surveys show U.S. equity and dollar pessimism at 15-year highs, though American markets' depth and liquidity remain attractive. 

The question remains: How far will this re-rating extend as investors reassess U.S. assets?

- Craig O’Neill, Chief Executive Officer