Plus, tax-smart UMAs, tokenization's quiet arrival, and labor cools to 4.6%
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The Disciplined Investor

December 18, 2025

Top Line

In this issue: Fed cuts rates but future policy seems uncertain, labor cools without cracking, and Regulation S-P’s December 3 deadline marks the real start of compliance work.

Plus: How private markets could boost RIA valuations, BofA enters crypto, and tokenization shows potential for advisors.

Industry News

Private Markets, Higher Multiples?

At the December 4 RIA Edge Private Markets conference, advisors noted that beyond yield and diversification, adding private-market investments may enhance client growth and retention, potentially increasing RIA multiples by 2.5-3X over time. WealthManagement

BofA Dips a Toe Into Crypto

Bank of America’s wealth arm is incorporating crypto into its model portfolios for the first time, suggesting clients consider a 1%-4% allocation. decrypt

Trend Watch: Unified Tax-Smart UMAs

Tech platforms are applying tax optimization across public and private assets within a single UMA, extending tax-added value beyond traditional portfolios. 55ip and InvestCloud are early movers, with firms like Vestmark/iCapital and BlackRock/GeoWealth following suit. WealthManagement

Macro Moves

Fed Cuts 25bp (Again), But Future Policy Uncertain

Last week’s Fed cut brought rates to 3.5%–3.75%. But here's the split: policymakers project one 2026 cut while markets price in two. The 9-to-3 vote featured three dissents—a first since 2019—while the yield curve steepens on policy mistake worries, expanding fiscal budgets, and rising global rates.

Labor: Cooling, Not Cracking

Tuesday’s employment data showed slowing payroll growth and unemployment rising to 4.6%, its highest level in over four years, signaling a cooling, low-hire/low-fire labor market.

Oil Drops, But Commodities Find Support

Oil prices fall, easing inflation pressures. Yet commodities broadly remain supported by easier monetary policy, dollar weakness, and fiscal stimulus expectations, reinforcing a reflationary undertone even as growth risks emerge.

WTI Crude Oil Generic 1st Future

May 13, 2024 - December 12, 2025

WTI Crude Oil Generic 1st Future  May 13, 2024 - December 12, 2025

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P.

In Focus

Regulation S-P’s New Era: With the December 3 Deadline Here, the Real Work Begins

Ready or not, here we go.

As of December 3, 2025, the SEC’s long-awaited amendments to Regulation S-P, the Commission’s primary data-security rule, are officially in force for “larger entities,” including registered investment advisers with a minimum of $1.5 billion in AUM. Smaller firms have until June 3, 2026, but the message from regulators is clear: Modern data-protection expectations have arrived.

 

At a high level, the amendments require firms to (1) implement a written incident-response program, (2) provide customer breach notifications within 30 days, (3) strengthen service-provider oversight, and (4), maintain detailed recordkeeping demonstrating compliance. These elements are well understood.

 

What remains less clear—and where advisers may face greater headaches—is navigating the practical grey areas the amended rule (the Rule) inevitably leaves open.

 

Defining “Sensitive Customer Information”

 

The amendments outline “sensitive customer information” as any customer data that, alone or when combined with other information, if compromised, could result in substantial harm or inconvenience to an individual.

 

Straightforward on paper, sure, but what actually qualifies? Basic identifiers? Account data? Holdings and performance? Depending on the context, almost anything could fit.

 

As such, many advisers are taking the conservative route and treating a broader range of information as sensitive to avoid under-notification risk.

 

Sensible, but not painless: Over-classifying data can trigger more escalations, documentation, and client notifications than truly necessary. The challenge is staying cautious without making the process unmanageable.

 

Determining When Data Was “Reasonably Likely” Accessed

 

Of course, the hard part isn't proving data was accessed, it's figuring out when someone actually grabbed it. Deciding that data was “reasonably likely” to have been accessed is what triggers the (often) unforgiving 30-day notification clock, yet most incidents don’t offer clean evidence of timing. 

 

Murky logs, a missing (but supposedly encrypted) device, or a vendor that can’t quite say what happened can put firms on the spot. With no bright lines in the rule, advisers are forced to set their own thresholds, kicking off the breach-response sprint. 

 

Coordinating State, Federal & Contractual Obligations

 

Regulation S-P may set a federal floor for breach notification, but firms still have to juggle a patchwork of state laws, global rules, and whatever timelines their vendors happen to live by. It's no wonder many are drifting toward a “strictest standard wins” approach, not because it's required, but to sidestep the chaos of tracking a dozen different countdowns simultaneously.

 

The Third-Party Wildcard

 

If all of this sounds challenging inside your own four walls, it really gets knotty once you remember that most of the action now happens at third-party vendors (think custody, reporting systems, CRM, and workflow platforms, etc.). 

 

The Rule expects advisers to ensure service providers both safeguard customer information and tell you quickly when they don’t, yet it never spells out how deep your diligence must go or what vendor contract terms are non-negotiable. 

 

Meanwhile, if a vendor is breached, you’re the one who has 30 days to explain it to clients. That combination turns vendor oversight from a routine checkbox into one of the most complex, high-stakes parts of the entire regime.

 

The Takeaway

 

With the Rule now live, compliance shifts from reading the SEC’s words to interpreting everything it didn’t say. 

 

Firms must define their thresholds, document their logic, and be ready to defend their judgment calls in an exam, because ambiguity isn’t an excuse; it’s the new operating environment. In other words: The Rule was the easy part. The real work begins now.

From the Team

Alexander D. Oxenham, CFA®, Partner & CIO

“The Fed is at an uneasy truce between the hawks and the doves. The default stance now is to hold steady and wait for clear labor and inflation data.”

一 Alexander D. Oxenham, CFA®, Partner & CIO

Timothy Reilly, President

“The AI trade isn’t going away - it’s about how investors interpret the rate of CapEx
spending and how that affects growth and multiples.”

一 Timothy Reilly, President

Craig O’Neill, Chief Executive Officer

“Capital markets are opening back up, and investors are starting to look ahead to the next cycle rather than just the next rate move.”

一 Craig O’Neill, Chief Executive Officer

Drill Down

Is Tokenization the Quiet Shift RIAs Can’t Afford to Ignore?

Roland Kastoun headshot

In a timely Q&A, Roland Kastoun, Asset & Wealth Management Advisory Leader at PwC, breaks down how tokenization could lower minimums, speed settlement, and broaden access to alternatives, even as regulatory uncertainty keeps adoption early. With institutional pilots gathering steam, this structural shift may impact client portfolios sooner than many expect. 

Read the full interview to see where the real opportunities—and risks—may emerge.
Looking Forward

Delayed GDP data has created an unusual blind spot, concentrating growth risk into the week of December 23.

Labor data is now coming into better focus: November payrolls rose just 64,000, October was revised to a 105,000 loss, and, as mentioned above, unemployment climbed to 4.6%, its highest in over four years. Federal job cuts and downward revisions point to a cooling, low-hire market, reinforcing Powell’s warning that job gains may be overstated.

Inflation remains the steadier leg, with PCE due at month-end; as such, growth, labor, and inflation together point to a more complex macro backdrop heading into 2026.

Indicator Release Date
Gross Domestic Product, 3rd Quarter 2025 (Initial Estimate) & Corporate Profits (Preliminary) 12-23-25
Headline/Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index 12-31-25 (expected)
ISM Manufacturing PMI, ISM Services PMI 1-5-26 & 1-7-26
Jobs Report (Nonfarm Payroll, Labor Participation Rate & Unemployment Rate) 1-9-26
Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) 1-6-26 to 1-13-26 (expected)
Bottom Line

As we close out the year, crosscurrents emerge: Markets are navigating short-term volatility and increased scrutiny around AI investment, yet the broader backdrop remains supportive of risk assets.

Easier monetary policy, improving market breadth, and easing inflation provide tailwinds, even as selectivity rises into the new year. Wishing you and your families a happy, healthy holiday season, and from all of us at Hilton, our best wishes for a successful year ahead.

Hilton Capital Management

Understanding the signals that shape markets is key to serving your clients effectively.

Stay informed, stay ahead, and connect with our team to enhance your investment toolkit today.

Contact Us

Hilton Capital Management, LLC (“HCM”) is a registered investment adviser with its principal place of business in the State of New York. For additional information about HCM, including fees and services, you can review our Form ADV Part 2A at https://adviserinfo.sec.gov/firm/summary/116357 or request a copy using the contact information herein. Please read the Form ADV carefully before you invest or send money.  Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Funds are distributed by Foreside Fund Services, LLC and certain employees of HCM are registered as Registered Representatives of Foreside.

 

Hypha HubSpot Development ("Hypha") and Hilton Capital Management staff ("HCM") collaborated in the preparation of this newsletter. Hypha is a marketing firm engaged and compensated by HCM. HCM has reviewed and approved this for distribution. The information set forth within should not be construed as personalized investment advice. There is no guarantee that the views and opinions expressed will come to pass. Investing in the markets involves gains and losses and may not be suitable for all investors. The information set forth here should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security.

 

This newsletter is not intended as, and does not constitute, an offer to sell any securities to any person or solicitation of any person of an offer to purchase any securities.  No offer to sell (or solicitation of an offer to buy) will be or is hereby made in any jurisdiction in which such offer or solicitation would be unlawful. This newsletter is not intended to be relied upon as advice to investors or potential investors and does not take into account the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any investor. None of the content should be construed as specific investment advice, or replacement for investment advice from HCM, or any other investment professional.

 

The information is provided as of the date of delivery hereof, is condensed and is subject to change without notice.  Some information may have been provided by or compiled based on information provided by third party sources.  Although HCM believes the sources are reliable, it has not independently verified any such information and makes no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of such information.

Hilton Capital Management, 1010 Franklin Avenue, Suite 300A, Garden City, NY 11530

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