Plus, breakaways, workplace-to-wealth growth, private credit focus, and key releases ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­    ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­  
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The Disciplined Investor

February 26, 2026

Top Line

AI is shifting from “feature” to “foreman,” and markets may be starting to price in a new divide: workflow orchestrators versus commoditized plumbing.

Also, what’s changing around RIAs (breakaways, lead-driven custody competition, 401(k) conversions) and what’s constraining markets (muted sentiment, sticky services inflation, and policy pressure on consumer credit).

Industry News

2026 RIA Tea Leaves: Creative Capital, Bigger Breakaways

Based on 2026 RIA banker and consultancy forecasts, this outlook points to evolving PE funding, larger wirehouse breakaways, and mid-market RIAs partnering up as independence and consolidation accelerate. Wealth Management

401(k) Goldmine?

Advisors are converting retirement plan participants into wealth clients, turning workplace relationships into scalable growth and a powerful acquisition channel. ThinkAdvisor

 

Leads Become the New Custody Battleground

Pershing is rolling out advisor referral programs, signaling custodians now compete on lead generation. This is especially appealing to PE-backed RIAs prioritizing rapid scale. Kitces.com

 

Macro Moves

2026 Mood Check: Sentiment Stuck in Neutral

February data shows consumer sentiment barely budging. Modest gains mask historically low confidence and a widening divide between wealthier investors and everyone else. Advisor Perspectives

2026 Policy Watch: Credit Caps, Big Tradeoffs

The 2026 debate over a 10% credit-card rate cap highlights a core tension: consumer relief versus tighter lending, fewer rewards, and reduced credit access. FA-mag.com

Services Inflation Sticks 

Services inflation is still hovering around ~3%, and without sustained goods deflation to do more of the heavy lifting, the path back to 2% looks harder. This could keep the Fed on hold in March/April and leave a June cut closer to a coin flip.

In Focus

AI’s Latest Shock to SaaS: A Question Investors Should Be Asking

Earlier this month, a single AI update helped wipe hundreds of billions off global software and data stocks. Anthropic’s new Claude “Cowork” agents and plug‑ins, designed to automate legal, sales, and analytics workflows, coincided with a sharp selloff across SaaS and data names, with published estimates ranging from about $300 billion on the initial shock to nearly $1 trillion in lost market value globally.

For advisors and their clients, the market action may be noisy, but the underlying question it surfaces is crucial: Will a given software company become the AI orchestrator of workflows, or just one of the pipes that orchestrator uses?

 

What the Selloff Was Signaling

To understand the fear, it helps to translate what these new agents actually do. Rather than living inside a single app as a “copilot,” Claude’s Cowork tools, built on its upgraded Opus 4.6 model, act more like an AI project manager sitting on top of many systems. Industry-specific plug-ins can draft contracts, update CRM records, generate presentations, and route tasks across tools, often with minimal user clicking. In an AI‑native workflow, the human talks to the agent; the agent talks to the software. The owner of that agent effectively owns the workflow.

 

The AI Project Manager Has Entered the Building

Some software platforms are explicitly trying to become that orchestration layer. Salesforce, for example, markets Agentforce as an AI agent that can understand intent and execute tasks across multiple clouds and external systems, not just surface recommendations in a single module. ServiceNow is investing in “Agentic Playbooks” that connect IT, HR, and finance workflows so AI agents can act across them with clear guardrails. These are early but concrete examples of large incumbents positioning themselves as the AI front‑door through which work flows.

 

Other tools may look more vulnerable. CNBC reporters with no coding experience recently used Claude Code to build a fully functioning Monday.com clone in under an hour for less than $15—a live demonstration that rattled investors and helped send the stock down more than 20% alongside a guidance miss.

 

Many niche SaaS tools still rely on users manually working through multiple screens and forms to deliver their value (e.g., an expense-management app). In a world where an AI agent can call their APIs behind the scenes, those tools could risk being treated like interchangeable plumbing: necessary, but with less brand visibility, weaker pricing power, and limited direct user engagement. The investor worry is that a growing slice of the software stack could be commoditized this way, even if usage technically remains high.

 

Orchestrators vs. Plumbing: The New Dividing Line?

For RIAs talking with clients, the practical question may not be, “Is this company using AI?” Almost everyone is. The more important question may be, “Where does this company sit in an AI‑first workflow?” Does management have a credible path to becoming an orchestration layer with agents that initiate and complete tasks across systems? Or, is the business still essentially a click‑heavy point solution waiting to be abstracted away?

 

None of this means “SaaS is dead.” At this point, Gartner and others expect agentic AI to automate an increasing share of routine, task‑level work more than replace core systems of record outright. But it does suggest a sharper sorting mechanism within software: Platforms that successfully orchestrate AI‑driven workflows are more likely to compound value; tools that are merely orchestrated will have to fight much harder to avoid commodity pricing.

 

One Way to Think About Software Exposure From Here

As you review software exposure with clients in the wake of the Claude‑driven selloff, framing holdings along this “orchestrator vs. plumbing” axis may help separate AI panic from genuine structural change.

From the Team

“In financial services, AI is altering business models, market leadership, and the advice process itself. Advisors who understand that can position portfolios earlier and with more confidence.”

一 Alexander D. Oxenham, CFA®, Partner & CIO

Alexander D. Oxenham, CFA®, Partner & CIO

“You only need to get burned by illiquidity once: Flexibility becomes one of the most valuable features in portfolio construction.”

一 Timothy Reilly, President

Timothy Reilly, President

“With dispersion increasing and advisors more uncertain on positioning, this environment can really reward active management. Portfolios need deliberate moves, not passive exposure.”

一 Craig O’Neill, Chief Executive Officer

Craig O’Neill, Chief Executive Officer
Drill Down

Private Credit Under the Microscope

Professionals analyzing financial data and charts on a desk

As headlines spotlight private credit liquidity limits and potential credit stress, RIAs are reassessing how they size, fund, and diversify exposure. AFA’s 2025 RIA Private Credit Survey shows how peers are actually allocating, which vehicles they prefer, and how they’re planning next moves. 

See the full results here.
Looking Forward

With growth cooling and inflation sticky, the next two weeks’ data could better clarify labor resilience and the Fed’s near-term path.

Indicator Release Date
ISM Manufacturing PMI, ISM Services PMI 3-2-26 & 3-4-26
Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) TBD, expected early March
Jobs Report (Nonfarm Payroll, Labor Participation Rate & Unemployment Rate) 3-6-26
Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting 3-17/18-26
From the Vault

Back on February 23, 2024, Nvidia muscled its way into the $2 trillion club as AI euphoria took hold.

Today, the chipmaker sits at roughly $4.65 trillion—the most valuable public company on the planet, up from a brief $5 trillion peak last October. That’s more than $2.6 trillion in equity value added in just two years: an almost unimaginable wealth creation arc.

Bottom Line

Recent data points to a resilient but uneven economy.

Income growth is slowing, inflation pressures persist, and Fed rate cuts may be delayed absent labor market deterioration. With market leadership broadening and dispersion rising, passive exposure alone may be insufficient. Capital allocators must stay active and adaptive as correlations shift, capital rotates, and portfolio construction evolves.

Hilton Capital Management

Understanding the signals that shape markets is key to serving your clients effectively.

Stay informed, stay ahead, and connect with our team to enhance your investment toolkit today.

Contact Us

Hilton Capital Management, LLC (“HCM”) is a registered investment adviser with its principal place of business in the State of New York. For additional information about HCM, including fees and services, you can review our Form ADV Part 2A at https://adviserinfo.sec.gov/firm/summary/116357 or request a copy using the contact information herein. Please read the Form ADV carefully before you invest or send money.  Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Funds are distributed by Foreside Fund Services, LLC and certain employees of HCM are registered as Registered Representatives of Foreside.

 

Hypha HubSpot Development ("Hypha") and Hilton Capital Management staff ("HCM") collaborated in the preparation of this newsletter. Hypha is a marketing firm engaged and compensated by HCM. HCM has reviewed and approved this for distribution. The information set forth within should not be construed as personalized investment advice. There is no guarantee that the views and opinions expressed will come to pass. Investing in the markets involves gains and losses and may not be suitable for all investors. The information set forth here should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security.

 

This newsletter is not intended as, and does not constitute, an offer to sell any securities to any person or solicitation of any person of an offer to purchase any securities.  No offer to sell (or solicitation of an offer to buy) will be or is hereby made in any jurisdiction in which such offer or solicitation would be unlawful. This newsletter is not intended to be relied upon as advice to investors or potential investors and does not take into account the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any investor. None of the content should be construed as specific investment advice, or replacement for investment advice from HCM, or any other investment professional.

 

The information is provided as of the date of delivery hereof, is condensed and is subject to change without notice.  Some information may have been provided by or compiled based on information provided by third party sources.  Although HCM believes the sources are reliable, it has not independently verified any such information and makes no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of such information.

Hilton Capital Management, 1010 Franklin Avenue, Suite 300A, Garden City, NY 11530

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