Plus, housing starts, SpaceX, and sportsbooks一they may know more about you than you think.  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­    ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­  
View in browser
Hilton Capital Management Logo

The Disciplined Investor

June 25, 2026

Top Line

Markets remain supported by strong fundamentals, even as the policy backdrop continues to evolve, while the wealth management industry is navigating shifts of its own.

This week, we also explore what buyers value in RIAs, how AI may reshape the advisor talent equation, and what sports betting data may reveal about household financial health.

​
Industry News

Still Falling Short: SEC Warns RIAs on Conflict Disclosures

Earlier this month the SEC warned RIAs about recurring deficiencies involving compensation conflicts, cash sweep arrangements, fee practices, and higher-cost share classes.

Could AI Help Solve the Advisor Talent Gap?

Maybe. Discussions at BNY’s recent INSITE conference suggested AI could turn the industry’s talent crunch into more of a training problem than a hiring problem.

Are You Ready for UHNW?

A new InvestmentNews piece argues serving UHNW clients requires a different operating model, not just more services.

Macro Moves

Warsh’s First Fed Meeting Shifts the Conversation

The Fed held steady last week, with inflation concerns possibly outweighing growth worries for now. But new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s shift away from forward guidance makes the new communication regime the real story.

How High Is Too High?

SpaceX raised a record $75 billion and topped $2 trillion in market value, leaving investors debating whether gravity still applies.

Hammers Down

Housing starts dropped to their lowest level since May 2020, with multi-family construction down over 40%—high rates are keeping builders on the sidelines.

In Focus

Build Like You Might Sell—Even If You Plan to Stay Independent

According to DeVoe & Co., 2025 set a new record with 322 announced mergers and acquisitions transactions in wealth management, surpassing the previous high set in 2024. And the pace hasn’t slowed: The first quarter of 2026 alone saw a record 76 deals involving $167.1 billion in assets under management.

 

But for firms with no intention of selling, the headlines still offer an important lesson: The market is revealing what buyers consider a high-quality advisory business.

 

What Buyers Value

 

The firms attracting buyers—and commanding premium valuations—typically share a handful of traits. Valuation specialists point to factors such as durable organic growth, succession readiness, and reduced key-person risk as important drivers of enterprise value. In many cases, what buyers value most isn’t sheer size, but the sustainability and transferability of future cash flows.

 

Additionally, firms offering complex estate planning, tax optimization, and multigenerational wealth transfer capabilities can command stronger valuations, in part because those services are difficult to commoditize.

 

That distinction is becoming increasingly important as the industry confronts a massive intergenerational wealth transfer. Cerulli Associates estimates that roughly $84 trillion will change hands through 2045, with more than $72 trillion expected to pass to heirs. Retaining those assets will depend not just on investment performance, but on a firm’s ability to maintain relationships across generations.

 

Questions to Think About

 

This raises several questions every RIA might consider:

  • Are client relationships institutionalized or concentrated with one advisor?
  • Can another team member step in seamlessly if needed?
  • Are workflows and service standards documented?
  • Is growth driven by repeatable processes or primarily by the founder’s personal network?
  • Is there a clear path for future leadership?

These are not queries reserved for firms preparing for a transaction. They’re questions about resilience.

 

Sellability as a Byproduct

 

In fact, “sellability” is often a byproduct of operational excellence. Firms that can survive leadership transitions, integrate younger advisors, and deliver a consistent client experience are generally better positioned to remain independent and pursue sustainable growth.

 

The AI Factor

 

One emerging dimension of the operational picture is AI. Firms that have integrated AI tools to reduce administrative drag, organize institutional knowledge, and support scalable service delivery are demonstrating stronger margins, a direct input to valuation.

 

It also raises a longer-term question about service positioning: as AI puts basic planning and investment management within reach of individual investors, firms competing primarily on those services face growing fee pressure. The firms best insulated are those that have built around complexity—advice that requires human judgment and deep client relationships.

 

The Bigger Point

 

Of course, not every RIA wants to be acquired. But every RIA benefits from building a business that can thrive beyond any one individual. The same qualities buyers reward also help firms scale, attract talent, and serve clients across generations.

In that sense, the M&A market isn’t just a story about consolidation. It’s a reminder that the characteristics that create enterprise value are often the same ones that create enduring businesses.

From the Team

“A hawk’s reputation is just a rumor until the rate hikes back it up. Warsh inherits the complacency—whether he keeps it is the whole story.” 一Alexander D. Oxenham, CFA®, Partner & CIO

Alexander D. Oxenham, CFA®, Partner & CIO

“We’ve been in easy financial conditions for years. As things get less easy, that will create some volatility in the marketplace—but we don’t currently see anyone calling for massive sell-offs.” 一Timothy Reilly, President

Timothy Reilly, President

“With new technologies there’s always the risk they get overhyped and/or overbuilt. We aim to participate in the rollout phase but not get overexposed so that the eventual cooling doesn’t have an outsized impact on the portfolio.” 一Thomas B. Maher, Portfolio Manager

Thomas B. Maher
Drill Down

What the Sportsbook Knows About Your Balance Sheet

Thirty states have legalized mobile sports betting since 2018, generating more than half a trillion dollars in wagers. New York Fed economists decided to follow the money—not to the sportsbook, but to the credit report. What they found about household financial health in states that legalized versus those that didn’t is worth a few minutes of your time. 

The data may surprise you.
Looking Forward

Upcoming economic prints will provide additional clues on the trajectory of growth, inflation, and labor market conditions—and how those trends may influence the policy outlook.

Indicator Release Date
Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report 6-25-26
Gross Domestic Product (GDP), First Quarter 2026 (Third Estimate) 6-25-26
Headline/Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index - Personal Income & Outlays 6-26-26
Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) 6-30-26
ISM Manufacturing PMI, ISM Services PMI 7-1-26, 7-6-26
Jobs Report (Nonfarm Payroll, Labor Participation Rate & Unemployment Rate) 7-2-26
Consumer Price Index (CPI) 7-14-26
Producer Price Index (PPI) 7-15-26
From the Vault

Small Print, Big History

On June 25, 1981, Bill Gates and Paul Allen converted their 8-year-old partnership into a corporation. At the time, Microsoft had fewer than 100 employees and was essentially a rudimentary software company. Thirteen years later, it would go public. Today, the company carries a market cap of roughly $2.8 trillion, one of the most valuable to ever exist. The paperwork took an afternoon. Forty-five years later, the firm is still growing.

Bottom Line

Markets continue to be supported by strong earnings and secular AI and infrastructure trends, but investors may be entering a new policy regime.

With inflation still above target and a potentially less accommodative policy backdrop, expect a more selective and potentially more volatile environment, rather than an end to the expansion.

Hilton Capital Management

Understanding the signals that shape markets is key to serving your clients effectively.

Stay informed, stay ahead, and connect with our team to enhance your investment toolkit today.

Contact Us

Hilton Capital Management, LLC (“HCM”) is a registered investment adviser with its principal place of business in the State of New York. For additional information about HCM, including fees and services, you can review our Form ADV Part 2A at https://adviserinfo.sec.gov/firm/summary/116357 or request a copy using the contact information herein. Please read the Form ADV carefully before you invest or send money.  Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Funds are distributed by Foreside Fund Services, LLC and certain employees of HCM are registered as Registered Representatives of Foreside.

 

Hypha HubSpot Development ("Hypha") and Hilton Capital Management staff ("HCM") collaborated in the preparation of this newsletter. Hypha is a marketing firm engaged and compensated by HCM. HCM has reviewed and approved this for distribution. The information set forth within should not be construed as personalized investment advice. There is no guarantee that the views and opinions expressed will come to pass. Investing in the markets involves gains and losses and may not be suitable for all investors. The information set forth here should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security.

 

This newsletter is not intended as, and does not constitute, an offer to sell any securities to any person or solicitation of any person of an offer to purchase any securities.  No offer to sell (or solicitation of an offer to buy) will be or is hereby made in any jurisdiction in which such offer or solicitation would be unlawful. This newsletter is not intended to be relied upon as advice to investors or potential investors and does not take into account the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any investor. None of the content should be construed as specific investment advice, or replacement for investment advice from HCM, or any other investment professional.

 

The information is provided as of the date of delivery hereof, is condensed and is subject to change without notice.  Some information may have been provided by or compiled based on information provided by third party sources.  Although HCM believes the sources are reliable, it has not independently verified any such information and makes no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of such information.

Hilton Capital Management, 1050 Franklin Avenue, 5th Floor, Garden City, NY 11530, United States

Unsubscribe Manage preferences